North Hobbs, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

628
FXUS64 KMAF 260641
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
141 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 135 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- An approaching upper level system will bring increasing coverage
  of showers and thunderstorms through this evening.

- A few severe storms will be possible from far southeast New
  Mexico into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region today
  with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Heavy
  rainfall may result in localized flash flooding early this
  morning into the evening today.


- Drier and warmer conditions take shape by the middle to latter
  half of the work week before storm chances increase by the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Current radar and satellite imagery shows a line of thunderstorms
moving slowly eastward across western portions of Lea County, while
scattered showers and storms extending down from the Upper Trans
Pecos to Davis Mountains. This is due to upper-level troughing over
the western half of the forecast area. Meanwhile, multiple outflow
boundaries across west Texas and far southeast New Mexico have
helped in the additional development of showers and storms in the
areas previously mentioned. Observations are also showing a
Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) positioned over southern New
Mexico which will keep most showers and storms across far west Texas
and southeast New Mexico overnight tonight. Satellite and radar
imagery also shows an increase in coverage of showers and storms
near Van Horn, thanks to the aforementioned shortwave trough moving
over these areas. A few of these storms may become strong to severe
capable of producing hail up to the size of half dollar coins and
damaging winds up to 60 mph. Storms should eventually progress into
the Permian Basin by the early morning hours, though coverage looks
to remain scattered. By late morning, the wave across far west Texas
and southeast New Mexico propagates eastward impacting locations in
the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. The severe weather threat
across the Permian Basin to Lower Trans Pecos will depend on the
timing and extent of the morning convection. Latest CAMs indicate
more coverage of morning convection across the Permian Basin
compared with the Lower Trans Pecos. Therefore, more favorable
instability will be prevalent over portions of the Lower Trans Pecos
and eastern/northeastern Permian Basin. Forecast soundings signal a
damaging wind and heavy rainfall threat thanks to marginally
unstable surface/mixed layer CAPE, sufficient deep-layer shear, high
DCAPE (1000-1300 J/kg), and high Precipitable Water values (PWATs).
Storms look to quickly become linear by the early afternoon hours
which will bring more of a damaging wind and heavy rainfall threat.
Cannot rule out a couple of isolated cells that form ahead of the
line, therefore, large hail along with damaging winds will be the
main hazards with these storms. Localized flash flooding is going to
be evident due to heavy rainfall from repeating storms. Heaviest
rainfall amounts are still uncertain, though convective bands will
be capable of producing 1-2" for some locations. Overall, areas
extending from far southeast New Mexico to the central/eastern
Permian Basin to Lower Trans Pecos will have a 50-60% chance of an
inch or greater rainfall accumulation.

By the evening, the main line of storms will begin to exit our
region. A few lingering showers and storms are expected into the
overnight hours across the eastern half of the area due to shortwave
impulses from the flow aloft. Much drier conditions are expected on
Wednesday as the main system passes to the east. Isolated showers
and storms are going to be prevalent over the northern Permian Basin
and parts of the Lower Trans Pecos. These storms should remain below
severe limits, though gusty winds may occur out of the strongest
storm.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): Much drier and warmer conditions on
Thursday before rain/storm chances increase by Friday lasting
through the weekend. We will be monitoring for the potential of more
severe storms during this timeframe. See the discussion below for
more details.

Thursday and Friday, an upper-level ridge strengthens over the
region. This will supply warmer high temperatures in the mid 80s to
mid 90s for most. Weak shortwave impulses embedded within the ridge
axis may translate over our area and bring a low chance (10-30%) of
showers and thunderstorms across far southeast New Mexico, Permian
Basin, and the Lower Trans Pecos Friday afternoon through the
evening. At the surface, guidance indicates the dryline will set up
near the TX/NM border. More available surface moisture and
instability will create a favorable pattern for the potential of a
few strong to severe storms. By the weekend, cluster analysis shows
southwesterly flow aloft taking shape once again as an upper-level
trough approaches from the west. This pattern looks to bring more
isolated to scattered showers/storms along with slightly cooler
temperatures in the 80s to low 90s Saturday through Monday across
the region.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MVFR conditions or lower in regions of showers/storms through
11Z-14Z Tuesday morning at terminals, followed by another round
of showers/storms 15Z-22Z for terminals on the Permian Basin and
Stockton Plateau. Main impacts of stronger storms at terminals
will be heavy rain capable of causing flash flooding, lightning,
damaging winds, and hail. In between regions of storms, VFR
conditions with scattered to broken clouds can be expected.
Showers/storms clear most terminals by 03Z-06Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  60  84  63 /  70  20  10  10
Carlsbad                 78  58  86  60 /  50  10   0   0
Dryden                   86  65  88  67 /  50  20  10   0
Fort Stockton            81  60  87  63 /  60  10  20   0
Guadalupe Pass           74  57  80  61 /  60   0   0   0
Hobbs                    73  55  84  58 /  50  20  10   0
Marfa                    80  50  84  52 /  30   0  30   0
Midland Intl Airport     74  61  83  63 /  70  10  10  10
Odessa                   74  61  83  63 /  70  10  10  10
Wink                     77  59  85  62 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94